Recession stuck, and the share brokers, analysts, economists, experts, theoreticians and politicians were taken unawares! Share market proved again that is doesn’t bow before anyone and it is the master of its destiny. To a great extent India survived recession and for that whom do you wish to give the credit? The political leadership? The Reserve Bank of India? The giants of industries in India?
None of this….One may try to prove issues through statistics and quote the best of the economic theories to convince you that recession has been contained through prudent economic policies. Such policies have provided marginal help to contain recession.
You need to give credit to the poor of India, about 70% of the total population, and the corrupt population of India, which could be any figure between 15 to 20%. And for the rest, recession did impact to some extent.
For the poor in India, what happens in the stock market, what happens about the space research, which car models are introduced, how many Mercedes cars are sold, are of no consequence. He is concerned with his dal-roti. If he can’t afford dal, he will carry on with potato, which is normally cheap. If he cannot afford potato, he eats roti with onion, chili or even salt. He has great capacity to come to terms with life! Poor man has no purchasing power so how can recession affect him? The poor man’s personal life can never be into recession in India as it was always under recession for the last several decades. His economic position is stationary like the polestar.
No credit can be given for the politicians and planners of India to brag about halting the recession. The vehicle has not moved at all. Where is the question of applying breaks? It goes to the credit of the mindset of the Indian poor people.
Did the corrupt which are about 20% of the population of India (broad assumption), as mentioned above, suffer from recession? They will also never suffer. This population mainly consists of politicians and their henchmen, those associated with the drugs and peddling/selling other goods of addiction, rich bureaucrats, and corrupt employees in the government departments etc and the flamboyant executives of top industrial houses that have lost touch with the common man, and are busy partying in the five-start hotels. These people live by “Uoopar ki Amdani” and save their salary. They have enough money earned through corrupt sources. Whether ‘cauliflower’ costs Rs.20/- per kg or 80/- per kg, doesn’t bother them. Some have so much money which is sufficient for the next 7 generations to come, even if they are not gainfully employed or do any business.
But there is the brighter side that continues to have positive impact on the Indian economy, and influences to check recession. We are not totally dependent for export/import on U.S or other countries that suffered to a great extent due to recessionary trends. So the tremors are not felt in India when the ‘economic earthquake’ shakes those countries. This is due to the IT and other sectors whose market is spread over in a number of European countries, apart from the domestic market. The employment position also remained steady. Outsourcing by the companies from foreign countries, to fulfill their own economic needs, has a favorable impact on the Indian employment situation. What if low salaries, the educated youngsters are getting some employment, to cover up their day to day expenses.
Nationalization of 20 important commercial banks about 4 decades ago also helped to some extent to avert recession. Government banks won’t crash and majority of them are run efficiently procedure-wise. State Bank, which is the biggest Commercial Bank in India, is a state-owned bank. India’s economy is not totally unbridled, just like some western countries.